2020 Q3 Market Report for North Central NJ

By Turpin Realtors - October 19, 2020

In spite of the challenges that 2020 has delivered, I am pleased to report that the North Central New Jersey real estate market is very strong. With nine months behind us, this year appears to be one of the strongest on record for our region. According to Jeffrey Otteau of the Otteau Valuation Group, New Jersey is on track to sell more homes in 2020 than during any other year in its history.

To be sure, the out-migration from urban areas is a major factor behind the energy, but it is not the only factor. Prior to the pandemic, younger families were already looking for more space west of the city; the global health crisis simply accelerated this trend. There is now a larger market shift afoot, with homeowners in eastern suburbs capitalizing on the increased buyer demand and generally shifting west themselves. This east-to-west movement that defined our market for generations stalled over the last decade, but now appears to have resumed.

County Level Overview

In our Essex/Union composite and in Somerset County, month-to-month declines in contracts are not surprising after the spike that began in April; nevertheless both exceeded 2019 performance markedly in September with sales increasing 48% and 78% respectively. After a brief dip at the end of summer, sales in Morris and Hunterdon Counties were increasing again in September as inventory continued to shrink. These charts do a good job of illustrating the brisk pace of our current market, and suggest that our next challenge may well be a lack of inventory.

Towns Show Strength in Higher Price Ranges

At the municipal level, the most striking improvements occurred in the $1-2 million market segment, where triple-digit increases in year-to-date sales occurred in Harding Twp. (+200%), Bernardsville (+189%) and Chester Twp. (+114%). This is welcome news, considering the struggles in this price range over the last decade, particularly in more rural areas.

Sales under $1 million have also been on the rise, especially in towns like Mendham Twp. (+60%) and Harding (+59%). In Hunterdon County the Town of Clinton (+54%), Lebanon Twp. (+36%) and Tewksbury (+35%) all surged, reinforcing the notion that buyers are indeed looking west toward more open spaces.

To the east, both Chatham Borough and Township are still slightly behind 2019 in the number of homes sold, but appear likely to catch up by the end of the year. Each posted strong third-quarter results, up 35% and 81% respectively over the same period last year. Madison, which has been a steady performer all year, posted a 24% increase in sales year-to-date, in spite of extremely limited inventory, especially under $1 million.

Most towns that did not post gains were lagging by only a small percentage. As the strong market has continued right into the fall, we would not be surprised if they outperformed their 2019 numbers by the year’s end.

At Turpin Realtors, we are always available to answer any question you may have about your particular real estate situation. Regardless of whether or not you plan a move, I encourage you to reach out to one of our fine agents for insights into the market. In 2020, we celebrate our firm’s 60th year in business and we have never been more proud to represent the people, properties and lifestyle that comprise these special communities we call home.

See the data